Market Update 4/10/2024
Latest recap:
Let The Pullback Begin or What?
March CPI Release Today: Market Impact Scenarios
Market Sentiment: Traders remain bullish
S&P 500 Levels - S: 5260 or 20MA; R: 5323 or 10MA; 5180 is next support
MY BULL/BEAR RATIO: NEUTRAL BIAS
ATTENTION
The “S&P 500 Blow-Off Top Forecast for 2024” REPORT IS AVAILABLE:
Anticipate a final peak of 6,136 by August! Dive into detailed analysis and forecasts, from price targets to market correction scenarios, by subscribing to my premium service.
Plus, as a premium subscriber, you'll gain exclusive access to targeted investment ideas tailored to navigate these dynamic market conditions.
Let The Pullback Begin or What?
Imagine the stockmarket indices (S&P500, Nasdaq or Dow Jones) are due for a pullback but forces like “top decision makers” combined with the greedy traders sentiment do not want that?
Basically since March, major indices have been in a trading range - everytime there was a massive spike it was immediately sold hard. But also everytime there was a huge drop it was immediately bought up.
Because of this, it has created maximum confussion to traders as no one can really make up if we are continuing to make new ATHs or if do the long-awaited market pullback of up to 10%.
The fact is that major indices have been going through a historic market rally since the 2023 October lows - for almost 6 months now! The battle for control between bulls and bears has started in March when the bullish trendline break occured, usually a sing of a bearish trend reversal.
But ever since that trendline break, major indices have moved “sideways” with heavy fluctuations in between (here the tech-heavy “Nasdaq index”). It is obvious that the market is awaiting the final catalyst and I believe the catalyst is now here! - one is the CPI release today and the other is the kick off of the Q1/2024 earnings season this Friday with big banks!
March CPI Release Today: Market Impact Scenarios
So here we are now -the consumer price index (CPI) inflation reading for March will be released today (8:30am ET). A lot has been said about the possibility of a hot inflation number that will impact the markets one way or the other.
Although the markets are runnning hot with extreme valuations and technicals, liquidity still rules the markets and is pushing this even further.
Scenario 1 - As expected: If the CPI data is coming as expected (“higher than the previous month but still in line with expectations”), Wall Street Bank JPMorgan suggests we may get a 35% to 37.5% chance the S&P500 might add as much as a half percentage point, or fall by as much as 1%.
Scenario 2 - Hotter-Than-Expected: If the CPI data is coming hotter-than-expected (“above the expected forecasts”), Wall Street Bank JPMorgan suggests we may get a 10% chance the S&P500 might drop between 1.75% and 2.5%.
Scenario 3 - Cooler-Than-Expected: If the CPI data is coming cooler-than-expected (“below the expected forecasts”), Wall Street Bank JPMorgan suggests we may get a 2.5% to 15% chance the S&P500 might rally between 1.2% and 2.0%.
Scenario 1 remains to me the most plausible one as “bad news” (higher inflation”) is already priced in - so there is not that much of a believe the numbers could be coming in either cooler or higher. In that case, the S&P500 should be trading within the big red candle from last Thursday.
Of course we should not skip out the rigged number suprise effect the White House in an election year. If they really do cooler inflation readings, the market is likely to do another ATH. But that is really the wild card and would dissort the market structure once again.
Market Sentiment
Traders remain greedy, so the sentiment is still bullish.
Live S&P500 Futures - Pre-Market Analysis
Traders remain totally confussed - the crazy intraday price actions with any spikes that are eleminated the same day are giving no chance to recognize a clear trend. Neither bulls dont want to give up nor the bears do.
But some technical indicators are telling us what may play out:
A pro-pullback argument was the the long-term trendline break in the S&P500 from last week. Another bearish indication is in fact the price that sits between the 10MA (resistance) and 20MA (support).
A pro-bull argument is that during the last 4 trading sessions with crazy volatility spikes to the downside always ended up above the “holy” 20MA, a critical short-term support. If this breaks, it will signal traders that the pullback is likely in. According to the last 4 trading session, “someone” does not want this to let happen, yet.
Levels to watch S: 5260 or 20MA; R: 5323 or 10MA; 5180 is next support
Pro Bullish:
New ALL-TIME-HIGHs!Bullish momentumAt the daily 20MA
Above the daily 50MA, 100MA, 200MA
Above the weekly 10MA, 20MA, 50MA, 100MA, 200MA
Above the monthly 10MA, 20MA, 50MA, 100MA, 200MA
10/20MA daily goldencross
20/50MA daily goldencross
20/100MA daily goldencross
50/100MA weekly goldencross
Strong Fourth Quarter of 2023
Strong First Quarter of 2024
Strong January Month of 2024
Strong February Month of 2024
Strong March Month of 2024
Price Target: 5,100-5,200 ACHIEVED (Wall Street Consensus for 2024!)
NEW Price Target: 5,500 (Oppenheimer Wall Street Bank March Update)
Blow-Off Top: 6,136
Pro Bearish:
Market at risk to roll over
Bullish momentum stalling
Long-term trendline break confirmed!
Wall Street’s 5100 price target for the year 2024 already achieved!
Wall Street’s 5200 price target for the year 2024 already achieved!
Market Sentiment at EUPHORIA level
Below the daily 10MA
Below the daily 20MA10/20MA daily deathhook
Weakening bullish momentum / Bearish momentum
Potential bearish head and shoulders pattern forming
Geopolitical Risk: Middle East Crisis / Ukraine Crisis
Currency Risk: Japan’s Yen Currency, US-Dollar crisis looming
MY BULL/BEAR RATIO: NEUTRAL BIAS
Thanks for reading my newsletter!
Have a happy trading day!
Seeking Exclusive Investment Ideas?
Upgrade to a Premium Subscription!
Exclusive Short-Term Trade Ideas: Get access to handpicked trade recommendations, designed for short-term gains using options. Ideal for those looking to capitalize on quick market movements.
Monthly Investment Ideas: Gain access to exclusive, carefully selected long-term investment opportunities each month. Ideal for individual investors and asset managers seeking to expand their portfolios with strategic, growth-oriented assets.
Direct Chat Access: Let me know if you may have any questions or comments, for example, regarding trade or investment idea!
Upgrade to our Premium Subscription today. Save tíme and level up your trading and investment game right now. Cancel at any time.