Market Update 4/16/2024
Latest recap:
The Pullback Of 2024 - April To May [PART 2]
Geopolitics & Debt Crisis
Market Sentiment: Fear is here!
Trade Idea: Short The S&P500 With The “SPY” ETF [Still Valid]
S&P 500 Levels - S: 5104; R: 5180 or 50MA; PULLBACK PT: 4808-4980
MY BULL/BEAR RATIO: BEARISH BIAS
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The Pullback Of 2024 - April To May [Part 2]
Yesterdays price action was driven by geopolitics and partly economic news - not really by the earnings releases from big banks such as the stellar earnings from Goldman Sachs.
Before the markets opened, economic updates on the consumer and the manufacturers were released and provided mixed updates. The consumer data (retail sales) came once again in much stronger than anticipated while manufacturing is taking another hit.
After shocking inflation data from last week (up), solid jobs data (robust), the Fed has to stick to its tightening course for longer as consumer data remain strong despite the weak manufacturing data.
Certainly not the best news traders were expecting and fueling even more the selling pressure over the short term.
Of course then we have the news out of the Middle East that is dominating big times the markets right now - at around 10:30am ET, news came out that smashed the market bounce when Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant told Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin Sunday that “Israel has no choice but to respond to the unprecedented missile and drone attack launched by Iran over the weekend”.
And lets be frankly - as long as this is looming, the market will be only focusing on these news, hence it is the driver of the markets right now and this is bad news to equities.
Geopolitics & Debt Crisis
Today the focus will be on Fed Chair Powell’s comments at 1:15pm ET and news out of the Middle East in terms of a possible Israel attack on Iran.
Yes, we are in the earnings season and there are some companies reporting earnings, but honestly, no one cares about it right now as geopolitics and the debt crisis has hijacked the mainstream media focus.
Market Sentiment
There you go - market fear is back, traders are not more buying dips!
Trade Idea: Short The S&P500 With The “SPY” ETF
The short idea on the SPY ETF from yesterday is still valid!"
Look how the sell volume was pushing the prices deep below the 50MA, something that signals traders across the globe that more trouble is ahead!
But remember when you short the SPY today, there is a potential for a relief rally after the hard drop from yesterday that could last from hours to 2 days!
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Live S&P500 Futures - Pre-Market Analysis
Wow what a nasty reversal that was straight after the opening yesterday. That my friends was a playbook trend reversal confirmation characteristic, meaning traders are now focussing on shorting the rallies/bounces rather than buying dips!
As of me outlined yesterday, the bounce will fail when we cannot get over the 10MA - and that happened yesterday. Now the entire chart looks so ugly that we can truly say that the market is doomed to go even lower from here to continue with the downtrend!
However, we have reached a critical support level (5104) that I am expecting to hold it for a while (from hours today up to 2 trading days possible). Whatever bounce there will be today or tomorrow, the rule you need to stick to as a trader is to short the rallies. Of course there is also a good chance the drop just continues today, everything is possible. But the odds are favoring an intraday recovery despite the news.
I am revealing to you now my personal target level: 4980 (near the 100MA).
Levels to watch S: 5104; R: 5180 or 50MA; MY PULLBACK PT: 4980!
Pro Bullish:
New ALL-TIME-HIGHs!Bullish momentumAt the daily 20MAAbove the daily 100MA, 200MA
Above the weekly
10MA, 20MA, 50MA, 100MA, 200MAAbove the monthly 10MA, 20MA, 50MA, 100MA, 200MA
10/20MA daily goldencross
20/50MA daily goldencross
20/100MA daily goldencross
50/100MA weekly goldencross
Strong Fourth Quarter of 2023
Strong First Quarter of 2024
Strong January Month of 2024
Strong February Month of 2024
Strong March Month of 2024
Price Target: 5,100-5,200 ACHIEVED (Wall Street Consensus for 2024!)
NEW Price Target: 5,500 (Oppenheimer Wall Street Bank March Update)
NEW Price Target: 5,700 (Fundstrat's Tom Lee April Update)
Blow-Off Top: 5,500-6,136
Pro Bearish:
Market is rolling over
Long-term trendline break confirmed!
Weak April month
Wall Street’s 5100 price target for the year 2024 already achieved!
Wall Street’s 5200 price target for the year 2024 already achieved!
Market Sentiment was at EUPHORIA level
Below the daily 10MA
Below the daily 20MA
Below the daily 50MA
10/20MA daily deathcross
Weakening bullish momentum / Bearish momentum
Potential bearish head and shoulders pattern forming
Geopolitical Risk: Middle East Crisis / Ukraine Crisis
Currency Risk: Japan’s Yen Currency, US-Dollar crisis looming/happening
PULLBACK PT: 4,808-4,980
MY BULL/BEAR RATIO: BEARISH BIAS
Thanks for reading my newsletter!
Have a happy trading day!
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