Market Update 4/23/2024
Latest recap:
The Pullback Of 2024 - April To May [Bounce time!]
Tesla earnings & Flash PMIs In The Focus Today
Market Sentiment: Fear remains, so stay cautious!
Trade Idea Review: SPY puts made 170% gains in 1 week!
S&P 500 Levels - S: 4980 or 100MA; R: 5060; MY NEW PULLBACK PT: 4808
MY BULL/BEAR RATIO: NEUTRAL BIAS
ATTENTION
The “S&P 500 Blow-Off Top Forecast for 2024” REPORT IS AVAILABLE:
Anticipate a final peak of 6,136 by August! Dive into detailed analysis and forecasts, from price targets to market correction scenarios, by subscribing to my premium service.
PLUS, SPECIAL REPORT AVAILABLE NOW ON HOW TO PROFIT FROM THE MARKET PULLBACK [Still Valid]
The Pullback Of 2024 - April To May [Bounce time!]
Last week was hard and bears finally had to celebrate something - AFTER nearly a 6 months nonstop market rally from the October 2023 lows, the markets started to drop.
One week prior to the Fed meeting (next Wednesday, May 1st), recent inflation data revealed tremendous issues that was not more able to hideout or to skip into the next decision making meeting. Being aware that the Fed has to take action, the markets have started to adjust to the upcoming Fed meeting by itself with long-term rates, oil and the USD going higer while equities sold off.
Nevertheless, the markets will never go down in a straight line - hence we are getting the relief bounce now after having hit the critical supportat the daily 100MA (4980) last Friday. But be aware traders, even though the news have recently changed to a positive shaft, we are likely resuming soon with the downside unless central bankers will rescue with liquidity injections.
One must have been in the UK lately since the FTSE index has hit a new ATH.
Of course Washington is primarily trying to blame the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine for the inflation issues and geopolitical uncertainties that causes the market volatility.
While it is try that any geopoltical issues may cause market volatility to increase, we should not forget that these events were not the primary contributor to the inflation issue at all!
Since Iran said it would not escalate its conflict with Israel, the price of oil fell which should help the inflation to ease a little. Gold came also down which indicates that the tension have eased and investors are less worried.
But still there is a good chance this was just a warm up as the situation has gone too far and we are likely entering the next stage of escalations on both regions (Ukraine and Middle East). Why I come up with this bold statement?
Well, think of it like a logistic company perspective - you are utilizing the “cease fire like time” to move new weapons, rockets, war machineries and even soldiers to positions to be ready to attack. The “war charts” are telling us that this is now happening (war charts: defense stocks, oil and gold prices).
Tesla earnings & Flash PMIs In The Focus Today
Today we will get Flash PMI data updates that will give us another fresh indication on how the economy is doing. If numbers coming in hot, its going to tank the markets as it will strenghten the Fed case to maybe even initiate another rate hike rather than keeping rate higher for longer now that inflation is roaring back. On the other hand if numbers coming in as expected or better cooler, markets likely continue to rally!
At the end of the trading session today, we will get earning reports from two mega cap companies, one is from TESLA and the other from VISA. Tesla that has recently had a massive downturn due to its lagging car business that CEO Elon Musk is trying to offset by lowering subsequently sell prices for its EV-Modells. Last share price is 142 and implied volatility suggests the price to move either up to 157 or down to 127, depending on the guidance!
Trade Idea Review: SPY puts made 170% gains in 1 week!
Last week I was recommending to short the SPY ETF (S&P500 equivalent) with put options - and if readers needed more help to find out which put option and strike price would be the best way to go, they could have subscribed to my SPECIAL REPORT that recommended two options!
Now let me reveal you the two options that I passed to subscribers to buy:
SPY 3 MAY 24 505 PUTs
SPY 17 MAY 24 505 PUTs
First of all, Congratulations to all my readers who were shorting the SPY ETF, you must have made money!
I also want to congratulate “My special report” subscribers - they were banking in at least 30%, if not even up to 170% in just a single week when holding the options by this Monday morning.
See in the following two screenshots from my special report from last week. Subscribe to learn how I was approaching these two recommendations!
Soon (this week) I will reveal another trade idea that comes along with a special report where I will show you which option you are better off to chose, DONT MISS IT OUT!
Market Sentiment
Market fear remains and selling the rallies too. But watch out traders, rallies can be quiet hard and even lasting for some days during downturns!
Live S&P500 Futures - Pre-Market Analysis
Last week was ending in a meaningful market pullback that achieved my first price target at 4980. Since hitting it on last Friday, the markets have started to bounce (rally).
The big question now is will this “rally” continue and maybe even form a “V-Shape” recovery, meaning to make it back to the ATH level at 5323/5300 or will the S&P500 continue with its downtrend to the next pullback target at 4808/4800?
The major bear (pullback continuation) case is when we see the 20/50MA to deathcross while we also reject at the 20MA. The bear case even accelerates if we get rejected at the 10MA in this week.
The major bull case (V-Shape Recovery) is when are breaking through the 20MA resistance.
As of today, I am expecting the rally to continue and to make its way towards the 10MA/5104 resistance. Although this is intraday bullish, I remain neutral as I am still leaning to the major bear case and believe we are in a “cat dead bounce” phase right now, meaning we are set to make another leg lower.
Levels to watch S: 4980 or 100MA; R: 5060; MY NEW PULLBACK PT: 4808
Pro Bullish:
New ALL-TIME-HIGHs!Bullish momentumAt the daily 20MAAbove the daily 100MA, 200MA
Above the weekly
10MA, 20MA, 50MA, 100MA, 200MAAbove the monthly 10MA, 20MA, 50MA, 100MA, 200MA
10/20MA daily goldencross10/50MA daily goldencross20/50MA daily goldencross
20/100MA daily goldencross
50/100MA weekly goldencross
Strong Fourth Quarter of 2023
Strong First Quarter of 2024
Strong January Month of 2024
Strong February Month of 2024
Strong March Month of 2024
Price Target: 5,100-5,200 ACHIEVED (Wall Street Consensus for 2024!)
NEW Price Target: 5,500 (Oppenheimer Wall Street Bank March Update)
NEW Price Target: 5,700 (Fundstrat's Tom Lee April Update)
Blow-Off Top: 5,500-6,136
Pro Bearish:
Market is rolling over
Long-term trendline break confirmed!
Weak April month
Wall Street’s 5100 price target for the year 2024 already achieved!
Wall Street’s 5200 price target for the year 2024 already achieved!
Market Sentiment was at EUPHORIA level
Below the daily 10MA
Below the daily 20MA
Below the daily 50MA
10/20MA daily deathcross
10/50MA daily deathcross
20/50MA daily deathhook
Weakening bullish momentum / Bearish momentum
Potential bearish head and shoulders pattern
Geopolitical Risk: Middle East Crisis / Ukraine Crisis
Currency Risk: Japan’s Yen Currency, US-Dollar crisis looming/happening
PULLBACK PT: 4,808-4,980
MY BULL/BEAR RATIO: NEUTRAL BIAS
Thanks for reading my newsletter!
Have a happy trading day!
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