Market Update 4/30/2024
Latest recap:
The Pullback Of 2024 - April To May [Bounce time…]
Month-End Closing & Amazon Earnings!
Market Sentiment: Fear is dwindling but traders remain skeptical
Trade Idea: Short The S&P500 With The “SPY” ETF
S&P 500 Levels - S: 5104 or 10MA; R: 5180 or 20MA/50MA
MY BULL/BEAR RATIO: NEUTRAL BIAS
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The Pullback Of 2024 - April To May [Bounce time…]
Stocks ended Monday's trading session on a high note, despite experiencing some volatility. The major indices began the day in positive territory, buoyed by the residual momentum from Friday, with Tesla, Inc. TSLA 0.00%↑ leading the charge as shares bounced 15% higher. After the promising outlook during the earnings call from last week, Tesla came with another positive surprise after CEO Elon Musk won Beijing's blessing to roll out the company's driver-assistance service in China. Tesla jumped almost 40% since the earnings call from last week!!
The indices remained mostly in the green throughout the morning, but they dipped in late afternoon trading.
In other words, the markets are in a wait and see mode now before the SUPER WEDNESDAY arrives. Wednesday is the Fed decision day - and on the Fed decision day, markets will digest Amazon earnings and labor market data that will definitely impact.
Month-End Closing & Amazon Earnings!
Today marks the last trading day of April, setting the stage for heightened market volatility as we approach Fed Day and the beginning of May tomorrow. Portfolio managers might engage in significant, rapid trades to recalibrate portfolios in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's decision.
Additionally, today will bring key economic updates from the consumer sector and labor market.
Unusually, the JOLTS report, typically released on a Tuesday, has been scheduled for tomorrow. This adjustment might serve to minimize its impact on the Fed's decision-making process, potentially benefiting Fed members by shifting this critical update to a less influential day.
Today Amazon will deliver earnings for the last quarter, one day prior the Fed decision on the next step of monetary policy.
The question now is, will Amazon provide another stellar earning and guidance to jump on the Alphabet and Microsoft train to (growth) success? Certainly, there is a decent chance as the online marketplace platform is still making lot of money to Amazon. But what is crazy at this time and could indeed provide a mega positive shocker surprise to market participants is the rumor that the management could announce at this time the first dividend payment!
Market Sentiment
Traders are still denying this retracement rally but are also becoming less fearful. Enough? We shall see in this week!
Trade Idea: Short The S&P500 With The “SPY” ETF
April 1st: The SPY pullback began, reaching the first significant threshold with a decrease of 5.9% to 495 after 15 trading sessions. This decline, measured from the previous all-time high, reflects heightened market volatility under current economic conditions.
April 19th: This date marked a temporary bottom at an index level of 495. Subsequently, the ETF rallied over the next six days, approaching a strong counterrally resistance between 510 and 512.
The counterrally is so strong that even the MACD indicator is about to do a bullish crossover now, typically signifies a potential upward movement in the price of an asset, suggesting that it might be a good time to consider buying.
However, we are also at resistance which could provide another turning point over the short-term.
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Live S&P500 Futures - Pre-Market Analysis
The current S&P 500 price hovers between the 10-day moving average (MA) and the convergence of the 20-day and 50-day MAs, just as it begins to approach the 20-day MA.
Despite signs of reviving bullish momentum, indicated by a bullish crossover in the MACD, the index remains within a downtrend channel. A recent bearish 'death cross' between the 20-day and 50-day MAs suggests these levels are now acting as resistance, alongside the 5180 price level.
On the eve of Fed Day, market movements are unpredictable, but the S&P 500 is poised for action tomorrow, potentially resulting in a bullish spike.
Scenario 1: In my view, any upcoming spike will encounter resistance at the convergence of the 20/50-day MAs and the 5180 level, likely culminating in the final leg of the current downturn.
Scenario 2: Conversely, should the S&P 500 breach the 5180 resistance, it could pave the way for new all-time highs.
Levels to watch S: 5104 or 10MA; R: 5180 or 20MA/50MA
Pro Bullish:
New ALL-TIME-HIGHs!Bullish momentum
Above the daily 10MA,
20MA, 100MA, 200MAAbove the weekly
10MA, 20MA, 50MA, 100MA, 200MAAbove the monthly 10MA, 20MA, 50MA, 100MA, 200MA
10/20MA daily goldencross10/50MA daily goldencross20/50MA daily goldencross
20/100MA daily goldencross
50/100MA weekly goldencross
Strong Fourth Quarter of 2023
Strong First Quarter of 2024
Strong January Month of 2024
Strong February Month of 2024
Strong March Month of 2024
Price Target: 5,100-5,200 ACHIEVED (Wall Street Consensus for 2024!)
NEW Price Target: 5,500 (Oppenheimer Wall Street Bank March Update)
NEW Price Target: 5,700 (Fundstrat's Tom Lee April Update)
Blow-Off Top: 5,500-6,136
Pro Bearish:
Market is rolling over
Bearish downtrend channel
Long-term trendline break confirmed!
Weak April month
Wall Street’s 5100 price target for the year 2024 already achieved!
Wall Street’s 5200 price target for the year 2024 already achieved!
Market Sentiment was at EUPHORIA level
Below the daily 10MABelow the weekly 10MA
Below the daily 20MA
Below the daily 50MA
10/20MA daily deathcross
10/50MA daily deathcross
20/50MA daily deathcross
Weakening bullish momentum / Bearish momentumPotential bearish head and shoulders pattern
Geopolitical Risk: Middle East Crisis / Ukraine Crisis
Currency Risk: Japan’s Yen Currency, US-Dollar crisis looming/happening
PULLBACK PT: 4,808-4,980
MY BULL/BEAR RATIO: NEUTRAL BIAS
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