Market Update 4/8/2024
Latest recap:
Let The Pullback Begin..?
Inflation To Be The Key Driver This Week
Market Sentiment: Bull sentiment is trying to come back!
S&P 500 Levels - S: 5180; R: 5260 or 20MA, Next support at 5210 or 50MA
MY BULL/BEAR RATIO: BEARISH BIAS
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Let The Pullback Begin..?
After an immense selling pressure from last Thursday that came by suprise to most market participants, the stockmarkets sort of stabilized on the following day.
The tech heavy index Nasdaq, for example, even managed to defend critical technical levels such as the weekly 10MA, or from a daily perspective, the 50MA. This raises questions again if this “Thursday event” was indeed just another quick accident in this now more than 5 months long winning streak?
We shall see in this week because….
Inflation To Be The Key Driver This Week
this week we will get the latest update on the inflation (CPI and PPI), something one Federal Reserve Bank member highlighted last week, is now more important than updates on labor markets or the US GDP!
Since the oil price, a significant contributor to the CPI and PPI has spiked over the last month, economists expect the numbers to come in higher than the previous month. For example, they expect the headline CPI to come in at 3.4% for March, 0.2% higher than it was for February.
In other words, a higher inflation reading is widely expected - normally this is a good thing for the markets if the actual data tomorrow are coming in even cooler or as expected. In that case, it should provide a catalysts to the market towards all time highs, making the shock event from Thursday becoming obsolete again.
But if inflation is coming in hotter, the pullback will play out over the short-term. This scenario I have just described is setup in the charts across all major indices.
My guess is that we may get a sligthly hotter than expected CPI reading, leading to a short-term pullback in the markets prior the earnings season kick off in the coming week. Thats basically what the charts are telling me.
Market Sentiment
Good times are over or not? Greed returned on Friday after being Neutral on Thursday.
Live S&P500 Futures - Pre-Market Analysis
Traders are confussed - are we getting the long expected pullback now or was this Thursday event another failed bear attempt?
No one has the crystal ball but we have some indications that provides more clues on that issue: Notably, the most important technical indication for a pro-pullback argument was the the long-term trendline break from last week!
The other bearish indication: Despite the powerful Friday rally, the price did not manage to get above the 10MA (strong resistance) despite it was a positive to find support at the 20MA.
In my opinion, this increases the odds of a pullback continuation over the very short-term (this week into next).
Levels to watch S: 5180; R: 5260 or 20MA, Next support at 5210 or 50MA
Pro Bullish:
New ALL-TIME-HIGHs!Bullish momentumAt the daily 20MA
Above the daily 50MA, 100MA, 200MA
Above the weekly 10MA, 20MA, 50MA, 100MA, 200MA
Above the monthly 10MA, 20MA, 50MA, 100MA, 200MA
10/20MA daily goldencross
20/50MA daily goldencross
20/100MA daily goldencross
50/100MA weekly goldencross
Strong Fourth Quarter of 2023
Strong First Quarter of 2024
Strong January Month of 2024
Strong February Month of 2024
Strong March Month of 2024
Price Target: 5,100-5,200 ACHIEVED (Wall Street Consensus for 2024!)
NEW Price Target: 5,500 (Oppenheimer Wall Street Bank March Update)
Blow-Off Top: 6,136
Pro Bearish:
Market at risk to roll over
Bullish momentum stalling
Long-term trendline break confirmed!
Wall Street’s 5100 price target for the year 2024 already achieved!
Wall Street’s 5200 price target for the year 2024 already achieved!
Market Sentiment at EUPHORIA level
Below the daily 10MA
Below the daily 20MA10/20MA daily deathhook
Weakening bullish momentum / Bearish momentum
Potential bearish head and shoulders pattern forming
Geopolitical Risk: Middle East Crisis / Ukraine Crisis
Currency Risk: Japan’s Yen Currency, US-Dollar crisis looming
MY BULL/BEAR RATIO: BEARISH BIAS
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